Disney is one of the most recognized and beloved brands worldwide. An investment in Disney provides exposure to a diverse range of sectors, including streaming, linear TV, movie studios, theme parks, hotels, and cruise lines—and likely more in the future. But is this well-loved and diversified company also a good investment? That is what I will explore in this analysis.
This is not a financial advice. I am not a financial advisor and I only do these posts in order to do my own analysis and elaborate about my decisions, especially for my copiers and followers. If you consider investing in any of the ideas I present, you should do your own research or contact a professional financial advisor, as all investing comes with a risk of losing money. You are also more than welcome to copy me.
For full disclosure, I should start by mentioning that at the time of writing this analysis, I do not own any shares in Disney. If you would like to see the stocks in my portfolio or copy my portfolio, you can do so on eToro, You can find instructions on how to do this here. I don't own any stocks in competitors of Disney either. Thus, I have no personal stake in Disney. If you want to purchase shares (or fractional shares) of Disney, you can do so through eToro. eToro is a highly user-friendly platform that allows you to get started with investing with as little as $100.
The Business
The Walt Disney Company, founded in 1923, is a global entertainment and media conglomerate operating across multiple industries. Its business is divided into three primary segments: Entertainment, Sports, and Experiences. The Entertainment segment, which accounts for 45% of Disney’s revenue, focuses on the production and distribution of film, television, and direct-to-consumer streaming content. This includes renowned film studios such as Disney, Pixar, Marvel, Lucasfilm, and 20th Century Studios, as well as streaming platforms like Disney+, Hulu, and Disney+ Hotstar. The segment also incorporates linear networks like ABC, National Geographic, and FX. Disney’s extensive intellectual property portfolio, featuring globally recognized characters and franchises such as Mickey Mouse, Marvel, and Star Wars, is a significant driver of this segment’s success. The Sports segment contributes 18% of Disney’s revenue and revolves around ESPN’s domestic and international operations. This includes sports-focused content distributed through ESPN’s television networks, the direct-to-consumer platform ESPN+, and Star-branded sports channels. The segment generates revenue through affiliate fees, advertising, and subscriptions, leveraging premium sports rights to attract a broad audience. The Experiences segment, which makes up 37% of Disney’s revenue, encompasses theme parks, resorts, cruise lines, and consumer products. Iconic assets include Walt Disney World, Disneyland, the Disney Cruise Line, and Disney Vacation Club, along with merchandise licensing and retail operations. This segment capitalizes on Disney’s intellectual property by incorporating its characters and franchises into physical attractions and consumer offerings, creating a seamless connection between its entertainment content and experiential services. Disney’s moat is built on its globally recognized brand, extensive intellectual property portfolio, and diversified operations. Its brand and characters are universally known, fostering strong customer loyalty and engagement. The company’s intellectual property, including highly profitable franchises like Marvel and Star Wars, enables it to generate revenue across multiple platforms, from box office hits to merchandise and streaming services.
Management
Bob Iger is the CEO of Disney, having returned to the role in November 2022 for a four-year term. He previously served as Disney's CEO from 2005 to 2020. Bob Iger first joined Disney in 1996 and held various positions before being named CEO. During his initial tenure, he was widely regarded as one of the best CEOs in the company’s history. Bob Iger was instrumental in Disney’s transformative acquisitions of Pixar (2006), Marvel (2009), Lucasfilm (2012), and 21st Century Fox (2019). He also launched Disney+ and oversaw the opening of Disney’s first theme park and resort in mainland China. His leadership delivered strong results for investors, with Disney stock achieving an annualized gain of 12,3% during his first term. Bob Iger is known for his clear and straightforward communication style and his preference for focusing on no more than three core strategies at a time. During his initial tenure, he prioritized producing high-quality creative content, promoting innovation, leveraging the latest technology, and expanding into new markets. As CEO once again, Bob Iger has outlined some key priorities for his new term. He intends to maintain the hiring freeze implemented by his predecessor, introduce a new organizational structure to empower Disney’s creative teams, and focus on making the streaming business profitable. Under Bob Iger’s leadership, Disney received numerous accolades. The company was recognized by Forbes as one of America’s and the world’s most reputable companies (2006–2019), by Fortune magazine as one of the world’s most admired companies (2009–2021), and by Barron’s as one of the world’s most respected companies (2009–2017). Bob Iger himself was named CEO of the Year multiple times. I believe Bob Iger’s exceptional credentials and track record make him the ideal leader for Disney, and I am very confident in his ability to steer the company successfully in his current term.
The Numbers
The first metric we will examine is return on invested capital (ROIC). Ideally, we look for a 10-year history with all figures exceeding 10% annually. While Disney has demonstrated strong performance in the past, its ROIC has been disappointing since 2019. Several factors have contributed to Disney's lower ROIC in recent years. Cost increases, particularly in labor and operational expenses, have weighed on profitability. The COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on Disney's parks and experiences segment, further reducing returns. Additionally, Disney has been heavily investing in growth initiatives, such as streaming and international markets. While these investments are expected to increase ROIC in the long term, they have negatively affected short-term results due to higher upfront costs. As macroeconomic conditions improve and Disney begins to realize the benefits of these long-term investments, ROIC is likely to increase. Early signs of improvement are already visible, with ROIC in fiscal year 2024 being the highest since 2019, although it remains underwhelming. Moving forward, it will be important to monitor whether Disney can consistently improve its ROIC.
The following numbers represent the book value + dividend. In my previous format, this was referred to as the equity growth rate. It was the most crucial of the four growth rates I used in my analyses, which is why I will continue to utilize it in the future. As you are accustomed to seeing numbers in percentage form, I have decided to provide both the actual numbers and the year-over-year percentage growth. The figures are somewhat mixed, but Disney has managed to achieve year-over-year growth in most years, which is reassuring. The significant increase in 2019 was driven by the $71,3 billion acquisition of 21st Century Fox, which notably boosted equity for that year. It is encouraging to see that Disney reached its highest equity ever in fiscal year 2024, building on record years in fiscal 2022 and 2023.
Finally, we will analyze the free cash flow. Free cash flow, in short, refers to the cash that a company generates after covering its operating expenses and capital expenditures. I use levered free cash flow margin because I believe that margins provide a better understanding of the numbers. Free cash flow yield refers to the amount of free cash flow per share that a company is expected to generate in relation to its market value per share. Disney historically delivered strong free cash flow until the acquisition of 21st Century Fox in 2019. Following the acquisition, Disney faced several challenges, including the COVID-19 pandemic, macroeconomic headwinds, and increased investments in long-term growth initiatives, all of which negatively impacted free cash flow. However, it is encouraging that Disney achieved its highest free cash flow since 2018 in fiscal year 2024. The significant increase in free cash flow is partly attributed to cost efficiencies implemented during 2024. As Disney begins to reap the benefits of its long-term investments, free cash flow is expected to grow further. The levered free cash flow margin is also at its highest level since 2018, and I anticipate it will continue to improve as cost efficiencies are realized and Disney benefits from its strategic investments. The free cash flow yield indicates that Disney is trading at one of its most attractive valuations in years, a point that will be revisited later in the analysis.
Debt
Another important aspect to consider is the level of debt. It is crucial to assess whether a business has manageable debt that can be repaid within a three-year period. This is calculated by dividing the total long-term debt by earnings. For Disney, the calculation shows that the company currently has significant debt, which would take approximately 7,84 years to pay off. This high debt level is primarily the result of acquisitions, particularly the $71,3 billion acquisition of 21st Century Fox, Disney’s largest acquisition to date. While I typically avoid investing in companies with such high debt, I am more open to doing so if management demonstrates a clear focus on debt reduction. Disney’s management has acknowledged the elevated debt levels and stated their intent to gradually improve the company’s debt profile. Given this commitment, I expect the debt to decrease over time, which mitigates some of my concerns and means the high debt may not necessarily prevent me from investing in Disney.
Exclusive Discounts on Seeking Alpha – Elevate Your Investing Today!
For those serious about investing, here's your chance to upgrade your strategy with exclusive offers you won't find anywhere else. These special discounts are available only through the links below—don’t miss out!
Seeking Alpha Premium: Access comprehensive financial data, earnings transcripts, in-depth analysis, market news, and more. Perfect for investors who want an edge in making informed decisions.
Special Price: $269/year (originally $299) + 7-day free trial.
Alpha Picks: Get stock recommendations from a portfolio up +151,64% (vs. S&P 500's +53,42%) since July 2022.
Special Price: $449/year (originally $499).
Alpha Picks + Premium Bundle: The ultimate investment package with a $159 discount!
Special Price: $639/year (originally $798).
I use Seeking Alpha daily for its reliable insights and actionable strategies. These deals are available exclusively through my links, so take advantage of them now to level up your investment journey!
Act quickly - these prices won't last forever!
Risks
Macroeconomic factors pose significant risks for Disney due to their direct and indirect effects on both consumer behavior and the company’s operational costs. As a consumer-driven business operating across entertainment, sports, and experiences, Disney is highly sensitive to economic conditions globally, regionally, and especially in the U.S., where a large portion of its revenue is generated. Economic slowdowns, such as recessions or periods of inflation, often reduce consumer spending, particularly on discretionary products and services. For Disney, this can result in lower attendance at its parks and resorts, reduced spending on premium experiences and merchandise, and weaker demand for vacations and cruises. Simultaneously, higher costs of goods and services, along with elevated labor expenses, can compress margins in these segments, as seen during recent inflationary periods. Even if inflation moderates, elevated labor costs are likely to persist, continuing to pressure profitability. Macroeconomic challenges also affect Disney’s other revenue streams, particularly its media and advertising businesses. Economic uncertainty or contraction often leads to reduced advertising budgets, impacting both linear and digital platforms, including Disney’s direct-to-consumer services and traditional networks. Furthermore, a decline in consumer confidence or purchasing power could lead to fewer subscribers for Disney’s streaming platforms or reduced licensing fees for its content.
Competition poses a significant risk to Disney as it impacts every aspect of its diverse operations, from content creation and distribution to parks, resorts, and consumer products. Disney faces intense competition from both traditional and emerging players across entertainment, media, sports, and experiential offerings, which not only affects revenues but also raises costs and challenges profitability. In content creation and media distribution, Disney competes with other studios, streaming platforms, and television networks to attract top talent, acquire compelling intellectual properties, and secure market share. The rise of new media and video-on-demand services has intensified this competition. In advertising, Disney faces increasing competition from digital platforms, social media, and video games, which offer advertisers highly targeted and measurable marketing options. These platforms continue to draw advertising dollars away from traditional and digital media channels. Disney’s theme parks, resorts, and cruises also compete with other forms of entertainment, lodging, and recreational activities. Competitors in the leisure and tourism industry frequently introduce new attractions, promotions, and innovative experiences, which can divert consumers from Disney’s offerings. The high costs of developing and maintaining Disney’s iconic experiences mean the company must consistently deliver exceptional value to maintain its competitive edge. Technological advancements and shifting market dynamics further intensify these pressures. For instance, generative AI tools have lowered barriers to creating high-quality content, increasing competition in video and animation production.
Damage to Disney's brand poses a critical risk because the company’s reputation and globally recognizable brands are integral to the success of its diverse operations. Disney’s brand transcends any single product or service, permeating its theme parks, streaming platforms, merchandise, and film franchises. This interconnectedness means that harm to the brand in one area can create a ripple effect across the entire organization. Controversies or negative publicity, even if unfounded, can spread rapidly, particularly through social media, which has the potential to magnify consumer backlash. This creates a significant challenge for Disney, as public perception of its social, cultural, and business decisions can have widespread and long-lasting consequences. A recent decline in Disney’s brand valuation and reputation rankings highlights the seriousness of this risk. Once ranked among the top five most reputable brands, Disney has seen a noticeable drop in recent years, reflecting waning consumer trust and affinity. Specific controversies, such as Disney’s public opposition to Florida’s “Don’t Say Gay” bill, illustrate how social and political stances can polarize public opinion and alienate parts of its audience. While these decisions may align with the company’s values or resonate with certain demographics, they risk alienating others, as evidenced by the sharp decline in Disney’s overall reputation score following the backlash. This polarization undermines one of Disney’s historically strongest assets: its broad-based appeal. Traditionally, Disney’s ability to connect with diverse global audiences has been a cornerstone of its success. As its reputation faces increasing scrutiny, maintaining this universal appeal becomes a growing challenge for the company.
Reasons to invest
Disney’s movie business is a compelling reason to consider investing in the company, given its unmatched ability to leverage intellectual property across a highly integrated ecosystem. A successful Disney movie today generates more value than ever before, thanks to the company’s diverse consumer touchpoints that amplify the reach and impact of its storytelling. These touchpoints span streaming platforms, parks and resorts, cruise ships, consumer products, and games, creating a multiplier effect that maximizes the economic potential of its films. Recent box office successes highlight this dynamic, showcasing Disney’s unique ability to extend the life and value of its content. When a major release debuts, it often drives increased consumption of earlier related films on Disney+, reinforcing the timeless appeal of Disney’s catalog while strengthening subscriber retention. This symbiotic relationship not only boosts streaming revenue but also deepens audience loyalty. Each major release contributes to box office success while driving engagement across the company’s ecosystem. These “tentpole” films act as catalysts for growth, attracting new Disney+ subscribers, increasing attendance at Disney parks and resorts, and generating demand for themed attractions, merchandise, and experiences. A single blockbuster can inspire new attractions at theme parks, integrate seamlessly into cruise line experiences, and expand consumer product offerings, unlocking multiple incremental revenue streams. The economics of Disney’s movie business have never been stronger. The company’s ability to monetize its films across a wide array of platforms, combined with the universal appeal of its intellectual property, ensures that each successful release delivers exponential returns.
Disney’s Experiences segment is a compelling reason to invest in the company, given its unparalleled ability to bring Disney’s iconic brands and franchises to life through physical and interactive experiences. This segment, which includes theme parks, resorts, cruise lines, and related ventures, has consistently delivered high margins, strong returns, and exceptional consumer satisfaction. The segment benefits from its unrivaled competitive positioning. Disney’s theme parks are globally recognized for their immersive attractions and seamless integration of Disney’s intellectual property. The combination of beloved characters, detailed storytelling, and world-class service creates a guest experience that is exceptionally difficult for competitors to replicate. Unlike many businesses in the leisure and tourism sector, Disney’s theme parks are uniquely positioned as “assets of one,” standing apart due to their unmatched quality and brand strength. The Disney Cruise Line is another key growth area within this segment. With its fleet expanding to six ships and plans to add seven more, Disney is on track to double its cruise capacity in the coming years. The cruise business is highly regarded by consumers and integrates Disney’s intellectual property seamlessly into its offerings, creating a unique competitive advantage. Guests enjoy Disney’s storytelling and service in a contained, immersive environment, which drives strong demand and high margins. Additionally, the cruise line holds significant untapped growth potential in global markets, making it a critical contributor to Disney’s future success.
Disney’s streaming business is a compelling reason to invest in the company, as it has become a key driver of growth. In just five years, Disney+ has established itself as a leading platform with over 120 million core subscribers, complementing Hulu’s established presence. Together, they create a robust streaming ecosystem that offers diverse, high-quality content, making Disney a destination for a broad audience. The integration of Hulu and the upcoming addition of an ESPN tile further enhance Disney+ by offering a unique portfolio of branded entertainment, general programming, live sports, and news, appealing to all household members. This comprehensive approach positions Disney’s streaming platforms as a one-stop destination for varied content. Disney’s ability to monetize its streaming platforms is supported by proprietary ad technology and a strong content pipeline. Its advanced ad tech stack enables precise targeting, providing a competitive edge in advertising monetization. This capability is particularly valuable in live sports, a segment central to Disney’s strategy and highly attractive to advertisers. The addition of the ESPN tile to Disney+ in December 2024 marks a significant step toward a full-scale sports streaming offering, with the launch of ESPN’s flagship direct-to-consumer product planned for 2025. The financial profile of Disney’s streaming business is also attractive. Incremental subscriber growth drives high margins due to the software-like scalability of the business. Disney’s ability to balance subscriber acquisition, pricing adjustments, and ad-supported tiers enhances profitability. For example, the shift to ad-supported subscriptions not only improves affordability for consumers but also increases average revenue per user through advertising. Disney’s content library and intellectual property further differentiate its streaming business. Proprietary content from its iconic movie studios and franchises not only drives subscriber growth and engagement but also ensures long-term pricing power.
If you trade stocks frequently, you can boost your results with VIP trading indicators. These tools are specifically designed to simplify your trading decisions and help you trade more profitably. Getting started is easy and affordable, with a cost of just $9. Plus, there’s a 30-day money-back guarantee, so if you don’t find value in the first 30 days, you can simply request a refund.
Valuation
Now it is time to calculate the share price. I perform three different calculations that I learned at a Phil Town seminar. If you want to make the calculations yourself for this or other stocks, you can do so through the tools page on my website, where you have access to all three calculators for free.
The first is called the Margin of Safety price, which is calculated based on earnings per share (EPS), estimated future EPS growth, and estimated future price-to-earnings ratio (P/E). The minimum acceptable rate of return is 15%. I chose to use an EPS of 2,72, which is from the fiscal year 2024. I have selected a projected future EPS growth rate of 13%. Finbox expects EPS to grow by 12,6%. Additionally, I have selected a projected future P/E ratio of 26, which is twice the growth rate. This decision is based on Disney's historically higher price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. Our minimum acceptable rate of return has already been established at 15%. After performing the calculations, we determined the sticker price (also known as fair value or intrinsic value) to be $59,34. We want to have a margin of safety of 50%, so we will divide it by 2. This means that we want to buy Disney at a price of $29,67 (or lower, obviously) if we use the Margin of Safety price.
The second calculation is known as the Ten Cap price. The rate of return that a company owner (or stockholder) receives on the purchase price of the company essentially represents its return on investment. The minimum annual return should be at least 10%, which I calculate as follows: The operating cash flow last year was 13.255, and capital expenditures were 5.297. I attempted to analyze their annual report in order to calculate the percentage of capital expenditures allocated to maintenance. I couldn't find it, but as a general guideline, you can expect that 70% of the capital expenditures will be allocated to maintenance purposes. This means that we will use 3.708 in our calculations. The tax provision was 1.796. We have 1.809 outstanding shares. Hence, the calculation will be as follows: (13.255 – 3.708 + 1.796) / 1.809 x 10 = $62,70 in Ten Cap price.
The final calculation is referred to as the Payback Time price. It is a calculation based on the free cash flow per share. With Disney's free cash flow per share at $4,71 and a growth rate of 13%, if you want to recoup your investment in 8 years, the Payback Time price is $67,90.
Conclusion
I believe Disney is an intriguing company, primarily due to its strong brand moat. I also value Bob Iger's return as CEO, given the remarkable job he did during his previous tenure. While Disney has delivered an underwhelming ROIC over the past six years, I would like to see improvement in this metric moving forward. However, the significant increase in free cash flow in 2024 is an encouraging sign. Disney’s high debt level is a concern, and it is important to monitor management's efforts to reduce it. Macroeconomic factors present a risk for Disney, as economic slowdowns, inflation, or reduced consumer confidence can lower demand for discretionary offerings such as theme parks, resorts, cruises, and merchandise, while also increasing operational costs. Competition is another risk, as Disney faces challenges across all its operations, from content creation and distribution to parks and consumer products. These competitive pressures raise costs, reduce pricing power, and necessitate constant innovation to maintain market share and consumer appeal in a rapidly evolving industry. Damage to Disney’s brand poses a significant risk because its reputation underpins the success of its diverse operations. Harm in one area can ripple across its ecosystem, and controversies or negative publicity - amplified by social media - can erode consumer trust, polarize audiences, and weaken the broad appeal that has been central to Disney’s global success. Despite these risks, Disney’s movie business is a compelling reason to invest, given its unmatched ability to monetize intellectual property across its integrated ecosystem. Each successful film not only performs well at the box office but also drives revenue through streaming, parks, merchandise, and other touchpoints. Disney’s Experiences segment is another strong reason to invest. It uniquely brings Disney’s iconic brands to life through theme parks, resorts, and cruises, delivering high margins, strong returns, and exceptional consumer satisfaction. With plans to double its cruise capacity, the segment is a cornerstone of Disney’s long-term growth strategy. Disney’s streaming business also drives growth, supported by a diverse content portfolio, the integration of Hulu and ESPN, and high-margin subscriber expansion fueled by its strong intellectual property and advanced ad technology. While there are many aspects of Disney to admire, the company’s low ROIC over the years and high debt levels mean I would require a significant margin of safety to invest. Therefore, I would only consider buying shares at a 50% discount to intrinsic value, which corresponds to a Payback Time price of $67.
My personal goal with investing is financial freedom. It also means that to obtain that, I do different things to build my wealth. If you have some extra hours to spare each month, you can turn a few hours a week into a substantial amount of money in a few years. If you are interested to know how I do it, you can read this post.
I hope that you enjoyed my analysis. Unfortunately, I cannot do a post of all the companies I analyze. I am available to copy but if you do your own trades, you can follow me on Twitter instead, as I tweet when I buy or sell anything.
Some of the greatest investors in the world believe in karma, and to receive, you will have to give (Warren Buffett and Mohnish Pabrai are great examples). If you appreciated my analysis and want to get some good karma, I would kindly ask you to donate a bit to the conservation of the snow leopard. This fantastic animal is in danger of getting extinct, and they need all the funds they get. If you have a little to spare, please donate to the snow leopard here. Even a little will make a huge difference to save these wonderful animals. Thank you.
Comments